Thursday, February 8, 2007

Card Luv's Thursday Forecast

Stanford (+5) at Washington State -- Maybe I'm a bit biased here, but I think that there is a lot working against the Cougars in this match-up. I think this will be a hard fought game, and while WSU might pull off the win, I don't think that they can cover this spread. Stanford has won 21 of 23 meetings between these two schools, and while WSU is having an impressive season, Stanford's interior presence should eventually wear down the Cougar's thin front line. The games between these two schools have been close of late, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one come down to the final couple of minutes.

California (+8) at Washington -- This is an interesting match-up of two very inconsistent squads. Washington comes into the game following a 30-point loss to Arizona game, which came after a three game winning streak, which followed a 28-point loss to WSU. Although Cal has settled into the lower half of the Pac 10 standings, this is a team that has been competitive in a number of their losses and Saturday's 19 point loss to Stanford at home is not indicative of how competitive this team has truly been. Washington should pull this off and keep their slim tournament hopes alive, but I can't see them covering an eight point spread against a game Cal team.

Arizona (-12.5) at Oregon State -- The Beavers are just what the doctor ordered for an Arizona team that has struggled to find their identity in this grueling Pac 10 race. After beating Washington like they stole something over the weekend, expect to see Arizona handle Oregon State with similar ease. It is almost as though the Beavers have just given up on this season and are now playing with absolutely no fire at all. Jay John has clearly lost this team, and many players seem disinterested on the court during the games. Experts were looking to Cuic to provide veteran leadership to this squad, and he has instead missed a number of games with injuries and not produced when he has played. This season should mark the end of a disappointing career for Cuic who will likely turn pro and play in Europe following the season. Arizona should easily cover against an Oregon State team that has thrown in the towel.

Arizona State (+15) at Oregon -- This line looks just about right to me as Oregon should be able to handle the Sun Devils fairly easily in Eugene. Although Arizona State is beginning to show some signs of improvement (one point loss to WSU at home), this is a tough place to play and I don't think ASU has any answers for an Oregon team that will be attempting to rebound from their most disappointing week this season. Although the Ducks have been losers of three of their past four games (they played the Washington game without Aaron Brooks), I expect to see them come out strong early in the game and put it away by halftime.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Card Luv's Lock of the Night

Can someone explain this line to me???...I am all over NC State +9.5 v. Georgia Tech. How on earth can Georgia Tech even be favored to win this game? While Georgia Tech is a decent home team, they have lost 4 out of 5 with the only win coming against a highly overrated Clemson squad. I don't like to venture out of the Pac 10 with my picks, but this pick buzzed in and stung me right square in the butt.

Thursday, February 1, 2007

Thursday Night Hoops

Wow... Arizona is in trouble, dropping a home game to WSU. Not that there is anything wrong with that this year, but it's time for Lute to drop the Alfred E. Neuman act (What, me worry?) and start figuring something out...

Nice win by Virginia tonight... and another nice boost for Stanford's RPI. Go Cavs!

Caron Butler makes the Eastern Conference All-Star team. Well deserved. Hey Kupchak, great trade. Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. Bet you'd like to have that one back, eh?

Pac-10 Midseason Summary

So here we are at the midpoint in a jumbled, deep and competitive conference. UCLA and UO are at the top with 2 losses, a log jam for 3rd at 6-3 with Stanford, WSU and USC and a slumping Arizona team in 6th at 5-4. Cal is 4-5, UW 3-6. OSU and ASU are bringing up the rear at 1-8 and 0-9 respectively. There really are only 2 easy outs this season and that means that every road trip is tough and I don't think any coach in this conference would be disappointed in a road split. I think we're good for 6 bids as a conference with a distant shot for 7.

Some thoughts on each team:
- UCLA: Still the conference favorite. They are strong on the perimeter and play tough D, though they are small and rely on quickness inside. They could end up as the #3 - 6 overall seed in March
- Oregon: Having a great season and keeping Kent off the hot seat. They will go as far as Brooks takes them and that was a big OT W at WSU on Saturday. They play at UCLA on Thursday so one of those 2 is picking up their 3rd loss for sure, further muddying the waters
- USC: Floyd is ahead of schedule and these guys are a few bounces away from 8-1 with the UCLA and WSU games being tough losses for them. Unfortunately, they have to play at Pauley and go to Washington. Strong bounce back game against Cal that they almost blew.
- WSU: Similarly, Bennett has done a great job. This is a very balanced team that doesn't quit. I hope for WSU's sake that Bennett doesn't take off soon (which would be a classless move in my opinion as his dad and the adminstration struck the deal so he could get his start)
- Stanford: More momentum than any team in the conference. A young team that is improving by leaps and bounds but will still find its way into offensive funks and defensive lapses. The ceiling is unlimited for this team (why wait until next year to make a run), the challenge is consistency. But boy, is this team fun!
- Arizona: Slumping big time. Maybe there is something to Lute not having enough depth and the starters getting run down. Their starting 5 can play with anyone, despite the UNC debacle, but they will have to figure something out if stamina is the issue because we still have a third of the season to go before the NCAAs. At this rate, Arizona looks ripe for #4 - 6 seed that gets knocked off early.
- Cal: This home sweep hurt them a lot. Unless Hardin provides a big lift when he gets back, I think they will be challenged to make the run that puts them into tourney contention. Their biggest W this year is @ Stanford. I would guess that Cal fans are disappointed and I can't help but wonder if Tedford's success puts pressure on Braun.
- UW: Like Stanford, they're young, but unlike Stanford, they can't win on the road to save their lives. They needed this home sweep to stay on life support for a NCAA bid. They will need to make a serious run (7-2) to get to a winning record in conference, even with a favorable home stretch. I think their best case scenario is that they make a run to hit 9-9 and then win 2 in the Pac-10 tourney to make the tourney
- OSU: Can't say the program has really improved much under Jay John. You have to wonder whether the clock is ticking on his tenure...
- ASU: Sendek probably didn't think he was walking into the toughest conference in the country when he left NC State for this job. Supposedly he's got some players coming in but man, ask Walt Harris... pulling an almost 0-fer in conference (assuming they get one when OSU visits) is going to be tough. I feel a little bad for Pendergraph b/c he's a promising player who doesn't have much help.

My first-team Pac-10 at the break, in no particular order and irrespective of position, bonus consideration for team performance, so probably will not be reflective of how the votes will shake. This was a lot harder than I thought given how many outstanding players there are in the conference this year:
- Marcus Williams, Arizona (toughest cover in the conference, can hurt you all over the floor)
- Aaron Brooks, Oregon (the engine that makes UO go and conference MVP at this point)
- Arron Afflalo, UCLA (a major threat on both ends of the floor)
- Nick Young, USC (can carry a team on his back, just ask UA and ASU)
- Ryan Anderson, Cal (Cal would be just like OSU without him)
- Lawrence Hill, Stanford (steady, efficient and deadly)
- Derrick Low, WSU (leading player on the surprise of the conference)
- Mustafa Shakur, Arizona (14 points and 7 dimes)
- Spencer Hawes, Washington (team is struggling, but he's a load)
- Darren Collison, UCLA (more than filling Farmar's shoes)

5 Honorable Mention:
- Taj Gibson, USC (a pleasant surprise and big part of USC's push)
- Jon Brockman, Washington (hurt by team's performance)
- Ivan Radenovic, Arizona (leading Arizona along with Shakur)
- Marcel Jones, Oregon State (hurt by team's performance)
- Anthony Goods, Stanford (playing out position but making clutch shots)

All-Frosh Team, irrespective of position:
- Brook Lopez, Stanford
- Robin Lopez, Stanford
- Spencer Hawes, Washington
- Ryan Anderson, Cal
- Chase Budinger, Arizona
I know that I put Gibson on the honorable mention but I'm going to use the argument some baseball writers used to avoid voting for Ichiro or Matsui for Rookie of the Year, that is, I can't bring myself to vote for a 21 year old for an all freshman team. If I had to put Gibson on the team, I would probably have to knock Brook Lopez off for now, given games he has missed due to injury. It was a tough call, as Tajuan Porter is pretty deserving as well.